Friday, February 22, 2008

Be careful what you wish for...

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is playing with fire... again. Perhaps he shouldn't be so quick to count on Israel's restraint this time around, or that of the United States.

To Israel Nasrallah said in his latest diatribe:
"Your army would collapse at the feet of Imad Mughniyeh. I swear that we would fight you like you never experienced. Your army would be destroyed in south Lebanon"

He added "The Israeli air force is not capable of winning a war and Israel has no alternative but launching an overland offensive . We are ready to achieve victory and no one can protect all of Israel from our rockets"

Nasrallah predicted that Israel will cease to exist , because the "The Arab opposition, including Syria will eliminate Israel"
It is clear from his remarks that he underestimates Israel's resolve and its capabilities. By making remarks threatening their very existence, he provides unambiguous justification for any steps Israel may feel it needs to take. Its characteristic restraint, ignored in the popular press and denied in the Arab media, will not be a factor in a battle in which its existence is seriously threatened.

Isreal will as always make every effort to avoid or minimize civilian casualties, a standard to which its attackers are never held, but in the end there will be much blood and death. Southern Lebanon will be laid waste. The practice of hiding weapons and ammunition amidst civilians, a typical tactic of Hizballah, the various Palastinian militant groups, and others who attack Israel will result in unavoidable civilian bloodshed nonetheless. The death toll will likely reach into the tens of thousands, and though Israel will surely feel the pain, the vast majority of the carnage will be north of the border.

And if Israel is found to be in serious jeopardy, the involvement of the US becomes a serious possibility. It's unclear what form such involvement would take, but the political landscape in the region would not likely resemble its present condition afterward.

Religious delusions on all sides are ultimately responsible for this entire conflict. If suddenly the veil of religious fervor could be lifted, the parties would have much to gain from cooperation.

Related stories: